Veteran Baton Rouge Home Appraiser, Bill Cobb, breaks down 18-months of Greater Baton Rouge home sales data. Based on 13,490 sales in East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, and Livingston Parishes, above $50,000, all home types as of 11/26/2023.
State of play: While Greater Baton Rouge home sales continue to decline to a 10-year low last experienced in January 2013, and a 20-year low nationally for pending sales, the median sold price remains essentially STABLE based on local MLS data.
Why it matters, the intrigue: The gloom and doom publishers have been offering click-bait headlines about the bubble bursting for some years now. The expectation has been for a repeat of the 2008-2009 U.S. economic meltdown in housing. Michael Zuber on Twitter has labeled them “Doom Bros”. They’ve been wrong for so many consecutive years.
Flashback to January 1, 2020: The local median sold price has climbed from $195,000 on January 1, 2020 to $258,000 as of October 2023, an astounding 32% and $63,000 increase. How much higher can Baton Rouge incomes stretch if prices continue to increase? See the Flashback chart below.
Will 2024 be the year of correction?: However, while a crash isn’t imminent, a correction may be on the way. Realtor.com weighs in with a predicted -5.6 percent in Baton Rouge home prices for 2024.
The bottom line: Greater Baton Rouge has experienced a meteoric rise in home prices despite a lackluster economy. While inventory is still relatively low, home affordability is the worst in history, high mortgage rates, high home prices, less easy credit and incomes not keeping up with inflation continue to challenge home buyers. Will our future home prices correct? Perhaps and only time will tell this story. NAR (National Association of REALTORS®) already shows we’ve declined by -2.9 percent currently. Businessreport.com published yesterday, “National real estate experts are predicting Baton Rouge will see the third-highest decline in sales growth in the nation next year.” Slowing sales growth could actually increase prices. Newsweek, reporting on Realtor.com data, reports Baton Rouge is in the Top 20 cities where 2024 home prices will decline.
MEDIAN SOLD PRICES
18-months of Greater Baton Rouge home sales essentially show a Stable market $259,700 18-months ago vs $259,000 in my most recent 3-month period, the most important medians being the last 6-months $261,000 and $259,000. Baton Rouge Appraisers rely on the most recent home sales stats available for market direction and to apply positive or negative time or market change adjustments.
MEDIAN SOLD PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT
18-months of Greater Baton Rouge home sales essentially show a Stable market with a median $150 vs $151 per square foot, the most important medians being the last 6-months $153 and $151 per sqft.
FLASHBACK CHART
The median sales price has increased from $195,000 in 1/1/2020 to $258,000 as of October 17, 2023 per Showing Time’s Infosparks Chart.
NOT ALL local micro market segments are STABLE though.
Baton Rouge’s MLS Area 41 70814 and 70815 (Park Forest / Monticello / Villa Del Rey) between 1,750 sqft to 2,300sf, 31+ yrs old market has been declining from $237,500 7-12-months ago vs $229,000 current to 3-month time period. This decline, see below, began 4-6-months ago when the competing median sales price declined to $224,500. Plus, there are or were 12-competing active listings. ***** NOTE: These are important facts local Agents need to know before listing a home in MLS presenting a supportable price to a potential buyer. *****
Inventory of homes for sale, based on the search parameters above, are at a high of 7.2-months with 12 competing active listings at the time as of 11/20/2023.
Greater Baton Rouge Pre-Listing Home Appraisals
Data Source: ROAM Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS/MLS 01/01/2020 to 11/30/2023, extracted 11/26/2023 and 11/30/2023.
Image credit: DALL-E 3 (DALL·E 2023-11-30 16.25.41 – A creative and symbolic illustration representing the concept of stable home prices in Baton Rouge).
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